Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3874
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 3874 · MCO → MDW
departs 1:30 PM ET · arrives 3:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 10/6 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
1pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
MDW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.84 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.