WN 3877 · STL → PHX

departs 11:52 AM CT · arrives 1:16 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↑ 11am departures from STL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3877 · STL → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?