WN 3893 · STL → TPA

departs 9:28 AM CT · arrives 12:57 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3893 · STL → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?