WN 3895 · STL → TPA

departs 6:31 PM CT · arrives 9:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3895 · STL → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?