Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3896
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 3896 · SAN → BWI
departs 7:15 AM PT · arrives 3:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 11%
Fri 10/2 13%
Sat 10/3 8%
Sun 10/4 10%
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SAN is busy at that time
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.