Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3903 LANDED 11:00 AM ET, ~9 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

WN 3903 · MCO → SDF

took off 9:16 AM ET · landed 11:00 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ MCO is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SDF (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3903 · MCO → SDF

Odds over time