WN 3951 · TPA → PIT

took off 6:16 PM ET · landed 8:15 PM ET (scheduled 6:05 PM ET → 8:36 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to PIT?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from TPA are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.13 mi forecast at PIT that day

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.44 in

PIT (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3951 · TPA → PIT

Odds over time

How late did it get to PIT?