WN 3955 · STL → MCI

departs 8:36 PM CT · arrives 9:51 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at MCI that day

↑ Arrivals into MCI at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ MCI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCI (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling5,167 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.29 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3955 · STL → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?