WN 3956 · TPA → SAT

took off 3:59 PM ET · landed 5:07 PM CT (scheduled 3:26 PM ET → 5:05 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SAT?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ Arrivals into SAT at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from TPA are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.99 in

SAT (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3956 · TPA → SAT

Odds over time

How late did it get to SAT?