WN 3987 · LAS → FAT

departs 7:44 PM PT · arrives 9:01 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FAT?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FAT (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3987 · LAS → FAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to FAT?