WN 4002 · BWI → MDW

departs 7:44 PM ET · arrives 8:45 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MDW?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late

↑ 7pm departures from BWI are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling9,914 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

MDW (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.35 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4002 · BWI → MDW

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDW?