Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4007
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30
WN 4007 · BWI → RSW
departs 8:05 AM ET · arrives 10:40 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at RSW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RSW?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
BWI is prone to delays
↑
RSW is prone to delays
↑
BWI is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RSW (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.