WN 4031 · DAL → BWI

took off 11:44 AM CT · expected to land 3:18 PM ET (scheduled 11:34 AM CT → 3:46 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BWI?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at DAL that day

↑ DAL is prone to delays

↑ 11am departures from DAL are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

DAL (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.15 in

BWI (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4031 · DAL → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?