Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4040
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
WN 4040 · PHX → ABQ
departs 11:15 AM MT · arrives 1:25 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at ABQ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ABQ?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from PHX are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ABQ that day
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
ABQ usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ABQ (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.