Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4047
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4047 · DAL → RNO
departs 2:40 PM CT · arrives 4:00 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 10/6 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±1 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at RNO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RNO?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 28 kt forecast at DAL that day
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↑
2pm departures from DAL are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
RNO (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.