Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4052
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4052 · PHX → ELP
departs 5:00 PM MT · arrives 7:15 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 44%
Tue 10/6 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at ELP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to ELP?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ELP (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.