Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4054
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
WN 4054 · TUL → DAL
departs 4:50 PM CT · arrives 5:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 73%
Fri 10/2 46%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
45%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
45%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Leave TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at TUL that day
↑
Arrivals into DAL at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
TUL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
TUL (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.14 in
DAL (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 2,100 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.22 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.