Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4057 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

WN 4057 · AUS → SAN

departs 8:09 PM CT · arrives 8:39 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

63% chance · ±0 pts +27 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ AUS usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.14 in

SAN (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4057 · AUS → SAN

Odds over time