Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4061
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4061 · SMF → DEN
departs 1:05 PM PT · arrives 4:25 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 10/6 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
−31 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −31 pts in 24h
−31 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −17 pts in 24h
−17 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.