Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 407 LANDED 6:55 AM ET, ~2 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

WN 407 · ORF → BWI

took off 6:19 AM ET · landed 6:55 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

6% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ ORF is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF

Weather at each end

ORF (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BWI (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 407 · ORF → BWI

Odds over time