WN 4084 · OMA → PHX

departs 12:23 PM CT · arrives 1:08 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

67% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.9 in of rain forecast at OMA that day

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ OMA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

OMA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.95 in

PHX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4084 · OMA → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?