WN 4086 · MSY → AUS

departs 4:54 PM CT · arrives 6:32 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY

Weather at each end

MSY (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.17 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4086 · MSY → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?