WN 4090 · BNA → TPA

took off 4:19 PM CT · landed 6:48 PM ET (scheduled 4:09 PM CT → 7:03 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to TPA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ 4pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.44 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4090 · BNA → TPA

Odds over time

How late did it get to TPA?