WN 4104 · BNA → JAN

took off 5:09 PM CT · landed 5:58 PM CT (scheduled 4:43 PM CT → 6:08 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at JAN more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to JAN?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ JAN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JAN (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4104 · BNA → JAN

Odds over time

How late did it get to JAN?