WN 4119 · LAS → DSM

departs 12:56 PM PT · arrives 5:39 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DSM?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at DSM that day

↑ 12pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ DSM usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DSM (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4119 · LAS → DSM

Odds over time

How late will it get to DSM?