Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4123
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Tomorrow
WN 4123 · SAT → PHX
departs 6:45 AM CT · arrives 7:05 AM MT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 9%
Fri 10/2 4%
Sat 10/3 3%
Mon 10/5 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
4%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAT
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from SAT are usually not late
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.