Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4154
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4154 · ATL → HOU
departs 12:40 PM ET · arrives 1:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 10/6 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
ATL is busy at that time
↑
Arrivals into HOU at that hour are often late
↑
12pm departures from ATL are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.