Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4154
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Tomorrow
WN 4154 · PHL → MDW
departs 7:25 AM ET · arrives 8:30 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Wed 9/30
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±2 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
PHL is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 17% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 9,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.51 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.