WN 4156 · PDX → DEN

took off 10:47 AM PT · expected to land 1:52 PM MT (scheduled 10:35 AM PT → 2:10 PM MT)

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −21 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

LIVE

On time or early
99%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ PDX usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4156 · PDX → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?