Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4160
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4160 · SAN → LAS
departs 6:50 PM PT · arrives 8:20 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 46%
Fri 10/2 48%
Mon 10/5 30%
Tue 10/6 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±9 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
6pm departures from SAN are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.