WN 4166 · STL → SAT

departs 8:41 PM CT · arrives 10:51 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAT

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into SAT at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4166 · STL → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?