Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4169
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4169 · HOU → AUS
departs 9:25 PM CT · arrives 10:25 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 10/6 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±0 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at HOU that day
↑
9pm departures from HOU are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
AUS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.15 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 1,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.