Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4177
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4177 · BWI → DTW
departs 11:00 AM ET · arrives 12:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 12h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 10/6 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
BWI is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 7,714 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.