Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4181 LANDED 8:12 AM PT, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

WN 4181 · SMF → LGB

took off 7:10 AM PT · landed 8:12 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?

5% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↓ Arrivals into LGB at that hour are usually not late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGB (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4181 · SMF → LGB

Odds over time