Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4182 LANDED 11:11 AM PT, ~11 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

WN 4182 · LGB → LAS

took off 10:31 AM PT · landed 11:11 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ LAS is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ 10am departures from LGB are usually not late

Weather at each end

LGB (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4182 · LGB → LAS

Odds over time