Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4196
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4196 · LAS → SEA
departs 9:55 PM PT · arrives 12:35 AM PT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 14h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 36%
Tue 10/6 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±6 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 3,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.