Schedule: FAA flight plans.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4215 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30

WN 4215 · MDW → BOS

took off 6:41 PM CT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 5:59 PM CT → 9:27 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from MDW are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BOS that day

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.94 in

BOS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4215 · MDW → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?