WN 4217 · MDW → BUF

took off 12:57 PM CT · landed 2:58 PM ET (scheduled 12:36 PM CT → 3:14 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to BUF?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 12pm departures from MDW are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ BUF usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.94 in

BUF (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4217 · MDW → BUF

Odds over time

How late did it get to BUF?