Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4227 LANDED 7:00 AM ET, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

WN 4227 · ROC → BWI

took off 6:12 AM ET · landed 7:00 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

5% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into BWI at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ROC (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

BWI (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4227 · ROC → BWI

Odds over time