Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 422
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 422 · IND → AUS
departs 5:30 PM ET · arrives 7:10 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 12h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 10/6 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at AUS that day
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IND
Weather at each end
IND (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 1,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.