Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4232
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30
WN 4232 · BWI → RSW
departs 7:10 PM ET · arrives 9:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Mon 10/5 22%
Fri 10/9 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at RSW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RSW?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at RSW that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RSW (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.