WN 4237 · LAS → SAN

departs 1:29 PM PT · arrives 2:38 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
29%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ 1pm departures from LAS are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling11,714 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4237 · LAS → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?