Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4240
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
WN 4240 · MCI → LAS
departs 5:05 PM CT · arrives 6:05 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 37%
Fri 10/2 25%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at MCI that day
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↑
5pm departures from MCI are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,620 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.59 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.