Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 424
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 424 · MCO → SJU
departs 4:45 PM ET · arrives 7:50 PM AT
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 12h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 10/6 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at SJU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJU?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJU
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
SJU usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
SJU (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.24 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.