Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4253
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4253 · BNA → SAN
departs 4:05 PM CT · arrives 6:15 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 5h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 30%
Tue 10/6 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.