Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4260
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4260 · ELP → SAT
departs 7:55 PM MT · arrives 10:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 7h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4 24%
Tue 10/6 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
46%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SAT that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SAT at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
SAT is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
ELP (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAT (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.