Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4270
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4270 · LAS → OAK
departs 6:30 PM PT · arrives 8:05 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 28%
Fri 10/2 33%
Sat 10/3 20%
Sun 10/4 29%
Mon 10/5 26%
Tue 10/6 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±5 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.