Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4296 LANDED 6:49 AM CT, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

WN 4296 · SDF → BNA

took off 7:14 AM ET · landed 6:49 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

5% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ SDF is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SDF (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4296 · SDF → BNA

Odds over time