Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4298
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4298 · COS → LAS
departs 6:00 AM MT · arrives 6:55 AM PT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 10/6 2%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave COS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 38 kt, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at COS that day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from COS are usually not late
Weather at each end
COS (origin)
Gusts 38 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.72 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.