Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4308
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
WN 4308 · BWI → TPA
departs 4:05 PM ET · arrives 6:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Sun 10/4 24%
Tue 10/6 13%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±0 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.44 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.